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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

That doesn't bear thinking about. Ukraine will be fudged and shortly after we'll be in a European land war again. .

We need to hope that the weird system in France produces a deadlock next weekend but not good news at all.
Le pen is another one of those "be careful what you wish for", on both sides.
For those voting for her She has no answers to the problems people are facing, will solve nothing and more than likely make it worse.
And should she get in and it goes to merde (and it will) their vote will tank for a long time.
That weird system they might just save them, but in reality it's doing nothing more than kicking the can do the rue because I don't see anyone capable of fixing it.
 
more people thinking Farage has the answers. Very easy on the sidelines to shout undeliverable things but pity people think it's the truth.
 
Le pen is another one of those "be careful what you wish for", on both sides.
For those voting for her She has no answers to the problems people are facing, will solve nothing and more than likely make it worse.
And should she get in and it goes to merde (and it will) their vote will tank for a long time.
That weird system they might just save them, but in reality it's doing nothing more than kicking the can do the rue because I don't see anyone capable of fixing it.

Won't have to worry about immigrants in little boats if she gets in, she'll load up Brittany Ferries ships with them.
 
Le pen is another one of those "be careful what you wish for", on both sides.
For those voting for her She has no answers to the problems people are facing, will solve nothing and more than likely make it worse.
And should she get in and it goes to merde (and it will) their vote will tank for a long time.
That weird system they might just save them, but in reality it's doing nothing more than kicking the can do the rue because I don't see anyone capable of fixing it.
Fascist governments can do very well economically in the short term, particularly by putting the country in war footing with industrial productions. See Trump, Putin, Hitler etc
 
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Won't have to worry about immigrants in little boats if she gets in, she'll load up Brittany Ferries ships with them.
I have visions of the Scarlet Pimpernel sneaking around Paris, evacuating liberals from coffee house attics and onto boats. The 1790s all over again.
 
Fascist governments can do very well economically in the short term, particularly by putting the country in war footing with industrial productions. See Trump, Putin, Hitler etc
The problem is that they stop producing consumer goods to go on a war production footing. When the war is over they find that when they go back to producing consumer goods someone else has already stepped into the void they left. fudges up their economy for years.
 
So what's the predictions for tomorrow then? I'm going for Tories to get 137 seats. Reform and Greens 6 between them but over 15% of the vote share.
 
So what's the predictions for tomorrow then? I'm going for Tories to get 137 seats. Reform and Greens 6 between them but over 15% of the vote share.
Im not sure Reform or Green will get 1 seat between them. Aren't Greens likely to even lose Brighton to the singer from Gomez? I think most Green voters will hold their nose and vote Labour for this one
 
Im not sure Reform or Green will get 1 seat between them. Aren't Greens likely to even lose Brighton to the singer from Gomez? I think most Green voters will hold their nose and vote Labour for this one

Greens should hold Brighton and take Bristol (which would be a shame as the Labour MP there is decent by all accounts). Tactical voting may even get them a 3rd in Waveney valley.

If you think Reform won't win any I think you are in denial over just how many Brexiters and generally 'abandoned' people there are out there. Think Farage and Anderson will both get in and there may be more.
 
My prediction:
Northern Ireland x18 - not a scooby.
1 Workers Party
2 Independent
4 Green
4 Plaid Cymru
15 Reform
25 SNP
55-65 Lib Dem
100-120 Con
High 300s - first couple of percentiles in the 400s for Lab

A huge Labour majority and a Tory voice that will drowned out at times by the issues the other parties align on.

So effectively numerous oppositions:
The Tories on everyday things
Tories plus Reform on some issues
Voting reform collaboration parties
And then similar coalitions of smaller parties making loud noises to create debate.
 
Any chance the lib dems could sneak 2nd?
It's possible, but would need a sizeable reform vote alongside it - and I'm not sure that'll happen.
There is always a large swathe of silent Tories.
There is a large number of undecided voters - do they give Reform and the Libs a bump? Do they decide, fudge it, can't be arsed to vote.

I'd say a good 20% of seats are a complete unknown at the moment.

Not sure the current Libs really offer anything to get behind; so would expect moderate numbers, but not enough to be second.

Weirdly, the Libs of Clegg would have been strong enough. And the SNP of a few years ago too. The Tories will get a kicking, but it'd take a life support type swing for them to be third.
 
It's possible, but would need a sizeable reform vote alongside it - and I'm not sure that'll happen.
There is always a large swathe of silent Tories.
There is a large number of undecided voters - do they give Reform and the Libs a bump? Do they decide, fudge it, can't be arsed to vote.

I'd say a good 20% of seats are a complete unknown at the moment.

Not sure the current Libs really offer anything to get behind; so would expect moderate numbers, but not enough to be second.

Weirdly, the Libs of Clegg would have been strong enough. And the SNP of a few years ago too. The Tories will get a kicking, but it'd take a life support type swing for them to be third.
I'm not too clued in on the lib dem polices but as I understand it moving the Tories into 3rd place would be fairly devastating for them in terms of getting their divisive culture war message across. Being the opposition offers bigger megaphone by far.
 
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"FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
"Ofcom-Watch has instructed a senior barrister to lead an independent inquiry into the alleged election interference by Channel 4 Television.

This matter relates to a Channel Four News programme broadcasted on 27 June 2024 during the UK General Election, in which multiple allegations against the Reform UK Party were made, including of racism and Islamophobia, based in large part on opinions voiced by a man who appears to be an actor, Andrew Parker.

A company called 'Lee Sorrell Media' appears to have sold the undercover footage to Channel Four and we are concerned about the effect this had on the ability to investigate the company’s use of the actor.

Mr. Lee Sorrell was previously Head of Investigations at ITV from 2004 - 2009 and before that he undertook the same role for LWT from 1993 - 2003. "Ofcom has a specific regulatory framework during UK General Elections and has a duty to follow guidance it has issued under the Communications Act 2003.

We are concerned to establish whether these and other broadcasting standards and regulatory guidelines may have been breached by the payment of financial inducements to influence voters other than through the restricted use of party-political advertising.

"The remit of the inquiry will be to conduct a thorough investigation into the facts including whether Mr Parker appeared in the broadcast, whether (if so) he was paid, his instructions from Lee Sorrell Media, whether the reporter was aware of his involvement, what communications took place between Channel Four, Lee Sorrell Media and Mr Parker and whether Channel Four was aware or should have been aware of the use of a paid undercover actor by its contractor.

It will then consider whether there may have been breaches of any law or guidance – including electoral law – and whether the facts of this incident show the need for electoral law to be tightened to address the use of paid actors in reports by news organisations. "Ofcom-Watch and the Reform UK Party will then consider whether to make formal complaints to Channel Four, Ofcom and (if the inquiry finds evidence of criminal conduct) to the police or the Director of Public Prosecutions.

"We believe that there is worrying evidence of electoral interference and the breach of the law that may have had a serious effect on the democratic process.

This incident is particularly concerning as the report was broadcast so close to the general election."The use of a paid undercover actor by Channel 4 and their associates is central to our inquiry.

We believe this constitutes serious election interference. "A company called 'Lee Sorrell Media' sold the undercover footage to Channel 4 in an attempt to thwart any retrospective audit trails linked to the actor (Andrew Parker).

Mr. Lee Sorrell, based in Barnsley, South Yorkshire was previously Head of Investigations at ITV from 2004 - 2009 and before that he undertook the same role for LWT from 1993 - 2003.

We would like to see what communications took place between C4, Sorrell and Andrew Parker?

These are serious breaches of the UK Electoral Law under "election interference". Ofcom has a separate regulatory framework during UK General Elections and we believe these may have been seriously breached.
 
"FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
"Ofcom-Watch has instructed a senior barrister to lead an independent inquiry into the alleged election interference by Channel 4 Television.

This matter relates to a Channel Four News programme broadcasted on 27 June 2024 during the UK General Election, in which multiple allegations against the Reform UK Party were made, including of racism and Islamophobia, based in large part on opinions voiced by a man who appears to be an actor, Andrew Parker.

A company called 'Lee Sorrell Media' appears to have sold the undercover footage to Channel Four and we are concerned about the effect this had on the ability to investigate the company’s use of the actor.

Mr. Lee Sorrell was previously Head of Investigations at ITV from 2004 - 2009 and before that he undertook the same role for LWT from 1993 - 2003. "Ofcom has a specific regulatory framework during UK General Elections and has a duty to follow guidance it has issued under the Communications Act 2003.

We are concerned to establish whether these and other broadcasting standards and regulatory guidelines may have been breached by the payment of financial inducements to influence voters other than through the restricted use of party-political advertising.

"The remit of the inquiry will be to conduct a thorough investigation into the facts including whether Mr Parker appeared in the broadcast, whether (if so) he was paid, his instructions from Lee Sorrell Media, whether the reporter was aware of his involvement, what communications took place between Channel Four, Lee Sorrell Media and Mr Parker and whether Channel Four was aware or should have been aware of the use of a paid undercover actor by its contractor.

It will then consider whether there may have been breaches of any law or guidance – including electoral law – and whether the facts of this incident show the need for electoral law to be tightened to address the use of paid actors in reports by news organisations. "Ofcom-Watch and the Reform UK Party will then consider whether to make formal complaints to Channel Four, Ofcom and (if the inquiry finds evidence of criminal conduct) to the police or the Director of Public Prosecutions.

"We believe that there is worrying evidence of electoral interference and the breach of the law that may have had a serious effect on the democratic process.

This incident is particularly concerning as the report was broadcast so close to the general election."The use of a paid undercover actor by Channel 4 and their associates is central to our inquiry.

We believe this constitutes serious election interference. "A company called 'Lee Sorrell Media' sold the undercover footage to Channel 4 in an attempt to thwart any retrospective audit trails linked to the actor (Andrew Parker).

Mr. Lee Sorrell, based in Barnsley, South Yorkshire was previously Head of Investigations at ITV from 2004 - 2009 and before that he undertook the same role for LWT from 1993 - 2003.

We would like to see what communications took place between C4, Sorrell and Andrew Parker?

These are serious breaches of the UK Electoral Law under "election interference". Ofcom has a separate regulatory framework during UK General Elections and we believe these may have been seriously breached.


You realise OFCOM-WATCH is some right wing 'NGO' with no standing or meaning (just 2000 gammons on X) and no statutory powers (i.e nothing to do with Ofcom)? And that this is just Tice and Farage trying to throw in a dead cat to distract from the festering brick heap that they and their limited company represent?

Them 'instructing a senior barrister to conduct an independent enquiry' has as much use as me asking a garden gnome for directions to Camelot.
 
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