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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

Kompakted said:
UBI is currently a pipedream. And it's not something I'm closed to completely because part of me thinks that it is inevitable that at some future date most meaningful work is carried out by AI. However, pretty much all the UBI experiments that have been conducted recently across the globe have ended in failure and certainly I think UBI remains as a card we will need to pull in a future work-place society dominated by non-humans as opposed to something that can improve human life/living standards in the current world
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That's odd as every study I have seen reference if seems to suggest that it works well - Some Scandi examples but I don't have them to hand. The general consensus was that it did not do away with the want to work, but that safety net does away with a lot of needless anxiety / potential stuff.

The idea often freaks people out and I do think part of it is a lack of willingness to do away with the forced rat race, especially if that person has done alright compared to most other folks.

The "Where will we find the money" ties in to the nonsense idea that we don't live in a plentiful planet. It's a pretty callous existence to say you don't deserve housing / healthcare / food / a balance between work and life if you weren't born into a position of privilege.
 
spurspinter1 said:
That's odd as every study I have seen reference if seems to suggest that it works well - Some Scandi examples but I don't have them to hand. The general consensus was that it did not do away with the want to work, but that safety net does away with a lot of needless anxiety / potential stuff.

The idea often freaks people out and I do think part of it is a lack of willingness to do away with the forced rat race, especially if that person has done alright compared to most other folks.

The "Where will we find the money" ties in to the nonsense idea that we don't live in a plentiful planet. It's a pretty callous existence to say you don't deserve housing / healthcare / food / a balance between work and life if you weren't born into a position of privilege.
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The failure doesn't lie in any academic study finding, but in passing the real-world smell-test of "was it taken forward and implemented more broadly?"

The "where will we find the money?" question might seem like a nonsense question to you, but again, back in the real world it is the hard reality question that smashes whatever any academic study into the trials says to pieces.

If you think about the sort of money required to take away "needless anxiety", as you say and times that by circa 70 million (the population of the UK) and then give that to everyone every month, you're looking at something north of half of the UK's current GDP in terms of the actual benefit payout, without factoring in any administration costs.

That's why it's currently a pipedream.

However, we may well get to a stage where AI makes a reordering of the current global economic and monetary model necessary.

The other elephant in the room that is far less talked about than AI is the ability to isolate and eliminate the process of cellular degeneration that causes the aging process. I see this occurring within the next couple of hundred years, likely accelerated by AI use cases within science and medicine.
 
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spurspinter1 said:
That's odd as every study I have seen reference if seems to suggest that it works well - Some Scandi examples but I don't have them to hand. The general consensus was that it did not do away with the want to work, but that safety net does away with a lot of needless anxiety / potential stuff.

The idea often freaks people out and I do think part of it is a lack of willingness to do away with the forced rat race, especially if that person has done alright compared to most other folks.

The "Where will we find the money" ties in to the nonsense idea that we don't live in a plentiful planet. It's a pretty callous existence to say you don't deserve housing / healthcare / food / a balance between work and life if you weren't born into a position of privilege.
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....and that's it's BIGGEST obstacle to it failing.... resentment. Humans do it soooo well.
 
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Glenda's Legs said:
I'm not particularly surprised about that, as I imagine there are a few senior civil servants who would earn more than the PM. Appreciate she's now working for the Labour party but she was unlikely to take a significant drop in pay to do so.
There is a more general question of whether we pay roles such as PM enough.
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I think the PM is underpaid for the job as are ministers as well. The point is increasing the special adviser salary bands and having Gray at a higher level than the PM isn't very smart politics when you're taking away things like the fuel allowance.
 
P.D. said:
I think the PM is underpaid for the job as are ministers as well. The point is increasing the special adviser salary bands and having Gray at a higher level than the PM isn't very smart politics when you're taking away things like the fuel allowance.
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I'm sure that's true when people are insistent on conflating things in a world of comparisons.

Gray (whom I know nothing about) will be paid the going rate. Whether that is worth it will be decided on her output/performance. It's at that point people should critique.

As a point of order, the winter fuel payment isn't being taken away, it's being means tested, as pretty much everyone agrees it should be.
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
I'm sure that's true when people are insistent on conflating things in a world of comparisons.

Gray (whom I know nothing about) will be paid the going rate. Whether that is worth it will be decided on her output/performance. It's at that point people should critique.

As a point of order, the winter fuel payment isn't being taken away, it's being means tested, as pretty much everyone agrees it should be.
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She's obviously not doing a great job if people are briefing against her and the donations stuff is lingering on. Not sure if she's underpaid, probably compared to the private sector yes but 170k plus pension and allowances isn't chump change.
 
Kompakted said:
The failure doesn't lie in any academic study finding, but in passing the real-world smell-test of "was it taken forward and implemented more broadly?"

The "where will we find the money?" question might seem like a nonsense question to you, but again, back in the real world it is the hard reality question that smashes whatever any academic study into the trials says to pieces.

If you think about the sort of money required to take away "needless anxiety", as you say and times that by circa 70 million (the population of the UK) and then give that to everyone every month, you're looking at something north of half of the UK's current GDP in terms of the actual benefit payout, without factoring in any administration costs.

That's why it's currently a pipedream.

However, we may well get to a stage where AI makes a reordering of the current global economic and monetary model necessary.

The other elephant in the room that is far less talked about than AI is the ability to isolate and eliminate the process of cellular degeneration that causes the aging process. I see this occurring within the next couple of hundred years, likely accelerated by AI use cases within science and medicine.
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These predictions around AI are but a pipedream too. The natural world is collapsing around us at a rate that will halt technological progress on this front well before the scenario you describe. That is the real elephant in the room. The fact they are starting to eat the elephants is the more immediate concern. What's left of civilisation will have different priorities.

Incidentally UBI financing is doable in rich economies because of the net benefits that accrue as a result. Bregman, of Davos fame, writes well on this topic. The numbers around this do stack up. For example in the US poverty could be eradicated with less than one quarter of the defence budget. Now i can't see this happening mainly because the 1% like the current setup just fine, and for the aforementioned reasons, but money is not the main impediment.
 
Rorschach said:
These predictions around AI are but a pipedream too. The natural world is collapsing around us at a rate that will halt technological progress on this front well before the scenario you describe. That is the real elephant in the room. The fact they are starting to eat the elephants is the more immediate concern. What's left of civilisation will have different priorities.

Incidentally UBI financing is doable in rich economies because of the net benefits that accrue as a result. Bregman, of Davos fame, writes well on this topic. The numbers around this do stack up. For example in the US poverty could be eradicated with less than one quarter of the defence budget. Now i can't see this happening mainly because the 1% like the current setup just fine, and for the aforementioned reasons, but money is not the main impediment.
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AI is taking over human jobs right now. My work place is deploying an AI right now (planned go-live end of September) that will replace over 10,000 jobs. Those jobs were already lost last year as the UK staff were redeployed or made redundant and the function was temporarily outsourced to a service provider in Poland in preparation. It absolutely isn't a pipe dream, it is happening right now. Real jobs, being done by AI. That's completely different to what is happening with UBI.

As to your point about the 1%, there are people in power in places as you say like Scandinavia that want UBI to work and have been conducted trials. However the fact remains that despite stating publically that the trials were successful, they didn't progress the implementation any wider, nor have any concrete plans or proposals to actually attempt a proper adoption of the concept. I think that speaks volumes.
 
Rorschach said:
These predictions around AI are but a pipedream too. The natural world is collapsing around us at a rate that will halt technological progress on this front well before the scenario you describe. That is the real elephant in the room. The fact they are starting to eat the elephants is the more immediate concern. What's left of civilisation will have different priorities.

Incidentally UBI financing is doable in rich economies because of the net benefits that accrue as a result. Bregman, of Davos fame, writes well on this topic. The numbers around this do stack up. For example in the US poverty could be eradicated with less than one quarter of the defence budget. Now i can't see this happening mainly because the 1% like the current setup just fine, and for the aforementioned reasons, but money is not the main impediment.
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Take away us defence budget, give away Ukraine, Taiwan and probably a few more.
 
Kompakted said:
The failure doesn't lie in any academic study finding, but in passing the real-world smell-test of "was it taken forward and implemented more broadly?"

The "where will we find the money?" question might seem like a nonsense question to you, but again, back in the real world it is the hard reality question that smashes whatever any academic study into the trials says to pieces.

If you think about the sort of money required to take away "needless anxiety", as you say and times that by circa 70 million (the population of the UK) and then give that to everyone every month, you're looking at something north of half of the UK's current GDP in terms of the actual benefit payout, without factoring in any administration costs.

That's why it's currently a pipedream.

However, we may well get to a stage where AI makes a reordering of the current global economic and monetary model necessary.

The other elephant in the room that is far less talked about than AI is the ability to isolate and eliminate the process of cellular degeneration that causes the aging process. I see this occurring within the next couple of hundred years, likely accelerated by AI use cases within science and medicine.
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What failure do you mean bud?

Lots of studies that yield positive results don't get enacted, often to do with those who conducted the studies accidentally finding an answer they didn't want and then consequently attempt to bury it.

Respectfully as I am trying to take in your response, I couldn't really give a fudge about the GDP, attributing importance on that above all else is what has put us in to the position we're in. Whatever fiscal squirming excuse people want to attach to it, it's a disgrace that things like clean water / a place to live aren't basic human rights, it's not profitable to focus on solving that problem right? If you keep people struggling you can exploit them.

It is a pipedream to solve that because it would take actual cooperation beyond borders and acknowledgement of the human species letting itself down.

Interesting on the AI points, a fair bit of damage has already done job losses that now have folks scrabbling to work out how to do something tangible and UBI seems like a way to ease that transition. I can't comment on the AI healing thing other than it sounds cool! Not too sure how it's pertinent to UBI but I guess Surgeons will be outta work..?

ricky2tricky4city said:
....and that's it's BIGGEST obstacle to it failing.... resentment. Humans do it soooo well.
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We can be a bit brick like that can't we!
 
glasgowspur said:
Take away us defence budget, give away Ukraine, Taiwan and probably a few more.
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Nah I don't believe that. The US defense budget is ridiculously bloated as is. Peeling off a portion of it would make very litle difference geopolitcally.
 
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Kompakted said:
AI is taking over human jobs right now. My work place is deploying an AI right now (planned go-live end of September) that will replace over 10,000 jobs. Those jobs were already lost last year as the UK staff were redeployed or made redundant and the function was temporarily outsourced to a service provider in Poland in preparation. It absolutely isn't a pipe dream, it is happening right now. Real jobs, being done by AI. That's completely different to what is happening with UBI.

As to your point about the 1%, there are people in power in places as you say like Scandinavia that want UBI to work and have been conducted trials. However the fact remains that despite stating publically that the trials were successful, they didn't progress the implementation any wider, nor have any concrete plans or proposals to actually attempt a proper adoption of the concept. I think that speaks volumes.
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Oh I know AI is affecting work now. It is affecting mine and will continue to do so. That was not my point. I was just highlighting that the planet will slap us back into the stone age long before AI makes us all eternals. We don't have hundreds of years, as your post mentioned. We are heading for societal collapse in my lifetime and that will put a hard stop on most technological progress. I don't think people realise how close we came to a multiple breadbasket failure in the last couple of years. It will happen soon enough though and it won't be pretty.

I think you are more or less agreeing with me on UBI. It will never be tried seriously because it is not in the interests of those who could make it happen.
 
Rorschach said:
These predictions around AI are but a pipedream too. The natural world is collapsing around us at a rate that will halt technological progress on this front well before the scenario you describe. That is the real elephant in the room. The fact they are starting to eat the elephants is the more immediate concern. What's left of civilisation will have different priorities.

Incidentally UBI financing is doable in rich economies because of the net benefits that accrue as a result. Bregman, of Davos fame, writes well on this topic. The numbers around this do stack up. For example in the US poverty could be eradicated with less than one quarter of the defence budget. Now i can't see this happening mainly because the 1% like the current setup just fine, and for the aforementioned reasons, but money is not the main impediment.
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It's not as simple as diverting money from one are to another, the US is massively in debt which is increasing at a faster and faster rate. The interest on that debt alone will be greater than the defence budget next year. They need to be spending less, they only get away with it because the dollar is the global reserve currency but I feel it's all about to painfully break soon enough.
 
Gutter Boy said:
Its ok, Elton has got this

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Its always the way now isn't.

Someone makes a valid point so someone on the other side of the discussion puts up something "funny" to seem whimsical.

I don't like the military industrial complex as Kennedy called it and it got him killed trying to slow it down.

But as much hate as America and Americans get, their weapons and defence has kept Europe safe. Safe to have our Liberal society. One I enjoy, one where people are free to be who they like.

I think people should be free to be who they like, as long as I'm not paying for it through my taxes.

You want to get rid of the weapons that protect us and your grandchildren will not have those freedoms.

Unless your one of the green nutters who think we will all be dead by then.
 
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