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Politics, politics, politics
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
There won't be one until whoever is the stalking horse does their bit.
Better than Theresa May is a low bar.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Jarvid and Hunt will hopefully both step forward when May is defeated (remembering Heseltine's Laws). Both have solid enough leave credentials but aren't Brexiteers, so could be unifying figures. They are also the grown-ups compared to the rest of the field
I'd like to see Mordant in the running too - a female who isn't May's protege (Rudd)
The good news is that pretty much anyone will be more socially liberal than puritan May
monkeybarry
Tom Huddlestone
monkeybarry
Tom Huddlestone
Presumably they would just move her to a safer seat for the next GE.
But yes I agree it is early. And I suspect the old guard will also not want another woman for a while.
Javid I had forgotten about.
He would be a smart political choice. For the Tories it looks "diverse". People will be reluctant/careful with criticism for fear of being branded racist and when something uncomfortable happens, the race smokescreen Will be useful spin.
Also a useful statement, with Khan as major of London.
He also politically disposable in the future
(And I want to see Trumps reaction!)
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
For me the key thing is that there isn't time for a full blown leadership contest now. They need to have a condensed process into a day or two for an interim leader, then get the membership to vote/ratify it in April.
StephenH
David Ginola
Seconded!
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
I would actually find it quite funny if we revoked A50, then put it straight back in again. Basically wrote off the 21 months of remainer brexit.
Seems like the best way to do it to me - basically write off 21 months of bricky tory brexit.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
The problem is that the proposed Labour's version is actually more neo-liberal than the Tory version, because of their stronger commitment to the customs union.
I just hope a FTA + max-fac candidate wins out (who isn't Johnson). The divorce bill and citizens rights stuff seems ok to virtually anyone, so shouldn't need to be revisited.
I think in reality the EU won't allow an A50 extension beyond May 2019, as otherwise it screws the European Parliament elections.
monkeybarry
Tom Huddlestone
And the ECJ literally just paved the way for that.
This is not true, the tory version may be less or more neo liberal depending on how we proceed going forwards. There is more freedom on how we proceed and with the tories in charge I would bet it is more Neo liberal than remaining in the EU.
What I can say for certain is the statement Labour Brexit is more Neo liberal than Tory Brexit is 100% not true.
We were talking about revoking A50 not extending it, the EU (including us) has no say on if we do this and not enact it again beyond May 2019. They would have to pass another treaty to stop this and we would have to agree as we would still be a part of the EU.
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
There is a 'consensus' Theresa May will win the vote
BBC political correspondent Ben Wright says the consensus among Conservative MPs is that Theresa May will win the vote this evening.
"Everyone is asking themselves how comfortably will she win it," he says.
"The question then is what does it change?
"The challenges would remain the same. Parliament is still completely opposed to her deal.
"The atmosphere in the Conservative party is poisonous - today's vote is not going to solve that."
"At a meeting of the 1922 Committee before the vote, we expect the prime minister to be pretty explicit that she doesn't have any intention to fight another election.
"That is a tactic No 10 is deploying to win over waverers."
Conservative MP Sir Bernard Jenkin says he will "reluctantly and with a heavy heart" be voting against the prime minister.
He says he wrote his letter to Sir Graham Brady yesterday, after realising that the PM “no longer commands the respect of the Commons".
"We need a new leader who is enthusiastic about Brexit instead of regarding it as a damage limitation exercise," he says.
But if Theresa May were to win, “the problems are still there in the House of Commons”, he says.
“All the MPs could 100% vote for her tonight, and she still hasn’t got a majority in the House of Commons” he says, suggesting that her win could actually bring forward a vote of no confidence in the government.
Responding to Philip Hammond's "extremist" comment, Sir Bernard says it is "odd" to be described as an extremist when 52% of the population voted to leave the EU.
"It's an Orwellian world we are living in," he says.
So if she wins tonight, itll be a vote of no confidence int he government next?
BBC political correspondent Ben Wright says the consensus among Conservative MPs is that Theresa May will win the vote this evening.
"Everyone is asking themselves how comfortably will she win it," he says.
"The question then is what does it change?
"The challenges would remain the same. Parliament is still completely opposed to her deal.
"The atmosphere in the Conservative party is poisonous - today's vote is not going to solve that."
"At a meeting of the 1922 Committee before the vote, we expect the prime minister to be pretty explicit that she doesn't have any intention to fight another election.
"That is a tactic No 10 is deploying to win over waverers."
Conservative MP Sir Bernard Jenkin says he will "reluctantly and with a heavy heart" be voting against the prime minister.
He says he wrote his letter to Sir Graham Brady yesterday, after realising that the PM “no longer commands the respect of the Commons".
"We need a new leader who is enthusiastic about Brexit instead of regarding it as a damage limitation exercise," he says.
But if Theresa May were to win, “the problems are still there in the House of Commons”, he says.
“All the MPs could 100% vote for her tonight, and she still hasn’t got a majority in the House of Commons” he says, suggesting that her win could actually bring forward a vote of no confidence in the government.
Responding to Philip Hammond's "extremist" comment, Sir Bernard says it is "odd" to be described as an extremist when 52% of the population voted to leave the EU.
"It's an Orwellian world we are living in," he says.
So if she wins tonight, itll be a vote of no confidence int he government next?
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
EU: Backstop is 'last resort'
The European Parliament has issued a statement after a conference of presidents, as it appears to want to reassure the UK Parliament about the Brexit deal.
It says that renegotiating the backstop is "not possible" as "it is the guarantee that in whatever circumstances there could be no hardening of the border on the island of Ireland".
But it adds it does not want to activate the backstop either.
"The conference reiterated its support for as close as possible future EU-UK relationship such that the deployment of the backstop would not be necessary," it says.
"The president and group leaders reaffirmed that the backstop is in any case to be used only as a measure of last resort."
The European Parliament has issued a statement after a conference of presidents, as it appears to want to reassure the UK Parliament about the Brexit deal.
It says that renegotiating the backstop is "not possible" as "it is the guarantee that in whatever circumstances there could be no hardening of the border on the island of Ireland".
But it adds it does not want to activate the backstop either.
"The conference reiterated its support for as close as possible future EU-UK relationship such that the deployment of the backstop would not be necessary," it says.
"The president and group leaders reaffirmed that the backstop is in any case to be used only as a measure of last resort."
Oh, that's OK then. Go on dear, drink the roofie soup. I promise not to put anything in you......
Parklaner81
Steve Hodge
They're taking the tinkle, surely?
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
The (Canada) Tory version gives more freedom is the key.
Labour's ties us into neo-liberalism indefinitely, whereas the Canada Tory one actually allows for us to vote in an Attlee/Keynesian manifesto in 2022.
I think that's part of the reason Corbyn is being careful not to blow the doors off
Yes so the Tory option with a Tory government is likely to be more neo-liberal, Labour come in they are likely to try and renegotiate it anyway to a Norway model.
It allows us to vote in a Keynesian manifesto which in the last election was probably most like the Green party, it is very unlikely going towards no chance, this country is not where you (nor I ) want it to be.