So..... Syria?

[scaramanga]

It's a complex issue. But we have been screaming democracy and liberty for years and when a popular revolution began in Syria and he gunned down crowds of protestors we did nothing. When Gaddafi did it we all went in and consolidated our interests.

Syria was not complicated. There was very little ISIS or AQ initially and if a no fly zone had been established early on, huge swathes of the population would be alive and many more not displaced. Now the people are dead and their relatives are angry and being radicalised as nobody else other than Jihadi nutters seem to care.

Going forward these is no good solution. Iran, Hezbollah and a Russia have made a serious pact. They defecto control Iraq. Are pushing Shia sects in Yemen and a messy battle between Arabs and Shia is happening. Syria is full of hardcore Jihadis who are for the most part not ISIS but are still pretty nuts. Who takes over if he goes?

Ultimately human life has come second to a political game of chess and it's awful.

I don't think you and I agree very often on politics, but you are on the money here.

 

[the dza]

It's a complex issue. But we have been screaming democracy and liberty for years and when a popular revolution began in Syria and he gunned down crowds of protestors we did nothing. When Gaddafi did it we all went in and consolidated our interests.

Syria was not complicated. There was very little ISIS or AQ initially and if a no fly zone had been established early on, huge swathes of the population would be alive and many more not displaced. Now the people are dead and their relatives are angry and being radicalised as nobody else other than Jihadi nutters seem to care.

Going forward these is no good solution. Iran, Hezbollah and a Russia have made a serious pact. They defecto control Iraq. Are pushing Shia sects in Yemen and a messy battle between Arabs and Shia is happening. Syria is full of hardcore Jihadis who are for the most part not ISIS but are still pretty nuts. Who takes over if he goes?

Ultimately human life has come second to a political game of chess and it's awful.

Depends how early on you mean. By the time our parliament took a vote (2013), Russia had been conducting it's largest naval exercises since the fall of the Soviet Union off the Syrian coast (readying for war), Hezbollah was fighting with the Assad regime and Al Nusra (Al Qaeda) were fighting against the Assad government forces. Alleged war crimes had been committed by both Assad gov forces and the FSA by that time, so even then, not really clear who fills the void if he was removed. Things might have gone from bad to worse since then, but I don't think this was ever particularly simple.

Remember, the USA bombed the sh1t out of Iraq, changed the regime AND left 150k+ troops behind, and they still couldn't control the situation. With Russian and Iranian backing for Assad coming in fairly early, even trying to establish a no-fly zone would never have been easy.

I do totally agree with your last sentence though.

 

[r-u-s-x]

I think intervention in Iraq was probably better than not doing so - even if you disagree I suspect you can see it as a possibility considering life before the invasion.

I'd also like to think that we can learn lessons and improve on what we do/how we do it. There's also the contagion factor to consider - if nobody is removing tyrannical dictators, where's the cost to becoming a tyrannical dictator?

I understand why we went into Iraq ( even though the WMD / WTC were a convinient lie) but I think it is quite a push to say in hindsight that it was better to go in. From a personal "anecdote" point of view my In laws are Catholics from Iraq who had plenty of family still over there, a lot worse for them pre war I think 5% of the country were catholic would say its around zero now. We discussed this previously regarding Freedom over safety as the most important factor, we disagreed there. I would say for the vast majority life was a lot better prior to the invasion (as with life under Assad).

We (and the US) have a long history of supporting dictators when they align with our goals in essence we give not a damn about dictators as long as they are our dictators.

In my younger days I have been very critical of our government and to a larger extent the US due to our inactivity of intervening in terrible situations. In an ideal world I would still very much want to get rid but I have no confidence this will lead to a better situation, we have not been successful at the "what comes next". The whole thing is not black and white and sometimes perhaps supporting a dictator is the lesser evil, perhaps intervention but until we have a success there is going to be lots of anti sentiment.

 

[LutonSpurs]

I don't think you and I agree very often on politics, but you are on the money here.

It is rare indeed!