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braineclipse
Steve Sedgley
You'd be hard pressed to find anyone that wouldn't be happier with more goals over just about anything.
The main thing that changed against Brentford was that they played differently against us than most teams have this season. We probably also played better, but that's more difficult to judge. How we'll now do against teams that sit back or defend more passively remains to be seen, but it's definitely not as easy as just doing what we did against Brentford.
braineclipse
Steve Sedgley
Agreed, particularly against Arsenal.
One of Sarr's greatest strengths in defending transitions, with Kulusevski/Maddison operating in those areas instead it makes sense for the full backs to be slightly more cautious. Also because Kulusevski and Maddison can do stuff on the ball that Sarr can't and that would otherwise fall on the full backs to contribute with.
But, this is pragmatism within a really attacking setup. One dedicated DM and two primarily attacking midfielders in the other roles in a 4-3-3 with wingers that go high and wide and all defenders and the DM playing with quite a bit of risk.
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
Nothing changed really other than they attacked us
lurker of old
Gus Poyet
After their draw last night, Man U will be going for us...fingers crossed it plays into our hands with our high press and some fast counter-attacking adding more gloom to the mancs' season...
Bishop
John Lacy
Possession for possession sake is pointless and counter productive. By all means dominant the usage of the ball, but it means you need players who are killers with it. Whether that's passing or dribbling between the lines it's what a heavy possession side needs and honestly I don't think it really suits our current crop of attackers.
What works better for them is some space, to move, to combine, to pass into and to run. You don't get anything out of Johnson with him faced up against a set defender, but let the game spread out rather than be congested in the opposition box and he suddenly has space either to run on to things or get on to the end of crosses or balls into the box. It's similar with Solanke, when we play the more methodical intricate passing game, he just gets crowded out and we neigh on impossible to find him in a dangerous position but again let the game stretch out a bit and he finds himself with 7 shots and 2 goals.
I'm not sure if Ange just encouraging faster play is enough but our game generally needs to be quicker and over slightly longer distances than we typically play. I think what Ange expects is for the opposition to come onto us when we pass around the back and that's what is going gain the open space to play around and into, but teams seem to have largely wised up to that so they either drop off immediately after their initial press or they do press us successfully (Palace as an example).
I think the profile of the midfield makes quite a difference to how we react to the press and the speed of our game. Maddison is a considered player but when deeper he's not fast mover, you can see he's trying to orchestrate but it doesn't seem so natural for him.
Possession for possession's sake does have some upside
- If you have the ball, opposition can't hurt you
- If you have the ball, the opposition has to work harder
I think there clearly are a few things happening with the team
- Think we are a bit more compact, little less overstretched defensively in general
- Think we have a variation in the midfield triangle, think it can be two 8's or two 10's and the FBs interaction with wingers can be varied, either via overlap or the FB coming inside, those two things create space in different places and allows us to adapt to different opponents
- The Villa game us clearly working against a very hardworking/congested midfield that had pace up front, something we struggled with previously
One of the media post game analysis had our 2nd half stats, we score more, we create more chances, we concede less. What I think they missed is it's very tiring to play against us, the press breaks you down, mistakes happen (see Pau for Villa).
My view is
- we have and do adapt in games much more than we get credit for
- The old Spurs hangover is the pace/tempo, when we play with pace and tempo most teams can't hang with us, when we play slow, we look very ineffective.
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
Villa play 4cms and a 10 who is a cm
They stodge up the middle and play for the power game
We did well to deal with that by changing tactics and having destiny overlap
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
It’s the pressing and aggressive effect
If we win the ball high up…. Which we do more than anyone… we get more counters
Not my understanding of a counter attack. It litterally means to absorb/block/dodge an attack and then quickly counter. It predates football.
Muttley
Jamie Redknapp
Here's a question. We seem to see xG everywhere nowadays and it is like every fan seems to just trust it and build logical arguments around it.
I know nothing about it. Can it be trusted or does it still have it's flaws like a lot of these stats?
SteveAWOL
Chris Jones
See that they did a whole thing about xG on MNF, suppose this is similar thinking to why Postecoglou wants wingers to play the ball across 6 yard box rather attempt to cut in and shoot from edge of box…
xG has to be taken with a pinch of salt though, as it’s the average likelihood of a player scoring from that position and doesn’t take into account whether it’s an elite finisher or a clogger with the opportunity at that particular moment; hence why Son keeps outperforming his xG as he’s so much better than average at those long range finishes.
Tottenham: Sensational XG record for Son Heung-min
Tottenham: Sensational XG record for Son Heung-min
www.bbc.co.uk
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metalgear
Luka Modric
See that they did a whole thing about xG on MNF, suppose this is similar thinking to why Postecoglou wants wingers to play the ball across 6 yard box rather attempt to cut in and shoot from edge of box…
xG has to be taken with a pinch of salt though, as it’s the average likelihood of a player scoring from that position and doesn’t take into account whether it’s an elite finisher or a clogger with the opportunity at that particular moment; hence why Son keeps outperforming his xG as he’s so much better than average at those long range finishes.
Tottenham: Sensational XG record for Son Heung-min
Tottenham: Sensational XG record for Son Heung-minwww.bbc.co.uk
xg needs to complemented with number of players in front of goal to be effective.
as it is it doesn't describe the difficult of the chance in a given position
a possession based team with slow build up whose main tactic is to cross from the byline will have good xg stats
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
Nah
It’s win the ball back and counter
braineclipse
Steve Sedgley
I think that's part of it.
But we're also good at those counter attacks from deep.
It's fine. I think of it as an improvement to looking at shots and shots on target stats.
Definitely has flaws, but in terms of quantifying the number and quality of chances created it's the most trustworthy stat around.
It's typically less trustworthy over a single game, need a somewhat larger sample size. It if used with a smaller sample size it definitely should be used alongside the "eye test".
Us, right now. Had our underlying xG numbers been significantly worse and our results (points, goals scored, goals conceded) been the same I think that would with some confidence point towards us having been a bit "lucky", that the results with similar performances most likely wouldn't be sustainable. As it is the xG numbers show that we can be reasonably confident that the results we're getting are likely to be sustainable.
But, qualifiers with that because injuries, fluctuations in form, luck and variance.
Definitely. Some of that has been fine margins. Some of that has been poor performances (second half vs Brighton and the Palace game in particular).
Finding consistency will be key.
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
Our counter attacks are mainly in the opposition half I believe
I’ll see if i can find the stats on it
It’s the winning of the ball like Davies did at the weekend that counts