Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[parklane1]

Jesus are they still folks crying over Brexit.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

Jesus are they still folks crying over Brexit.

Yes because they're crying over the poll leads for Reform...

 

[Crab.C.Nesbitt]

A lot of those studies and assessments are total gonads though. If I just take the first bullet- "studies indicate that the UK's GDP is lower than it would have been had it remained in the EU, with one report suggesting a £140 billion reduction in 2023."

All of this analysis is done by projecting the trend of the UK's economic growth within the EU and then comparing this to current performance. But this doesnt factor in the general fall in economic growth trends across the EU itself (i.e. this suggests that the UK would have suffered a drop off in its growth trend had it remained in the EU).

Now the graph here shows the UK following pretty much the exact trend of all core European countries in terms of GDP across the period Brexit was enacted up to 2023 where we should supposedly be significantly down on where we would have been had we remained in the EU.

So unless you want to pretend that had we stayed in the EU we'd have bucked the trend of all major economies in the EU and our line would have pulled above the pack in that graph and be tracking above everyone else, then we can only conclude that all of those studies were wrong.

The most recently available data from the OBR indicates that we are lagging significantly behind the G7. Which includes both France and Germany, the two most comparable economies in the eu.

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2024 - Office for Budget Responsibility

The latest update of our forecasts was published on 6 March 2024 in the March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the Executive summary for the key messages of our forecast or the full report on our website. Chapter 2 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five-year horizon. We cover...

obr.uk

Apologies for my ignorance but what’s the source of the graph you shared?

 

[Mikey10]

Nothing to do with Labour (or Kamala Harris for that matter which was an earlier iteration of this meme) as far as I can tell.

Don't let facts get in the way, please.

Jesus are they still folks crying over Brexit.

Given the lost billions it still costs our ecenomy every year, I guess so.

 

[Crab.C.Nesbitt]

Jesus are they still folks crying over Brexit.

considering Brexit is fudging our economy it would seem very sensible to recognise and deal with this.

 

[Crab.C.Nesbitt]

Yes because they're crying over the poll leads for Reform...

Looking forward to seeing those polls shrinking as people come to realise how incompetent reform councillors actually are, and how corrupt their mps will be.

 

[Lilbaz]

Ok enlighten me then, what is coming?

People get desperate enough and angry enought. They'll vote for anything promising change. Even a hitler.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

People get desperate enough and angry enought. They'll vote for anything promising change. Even a hitler.

Worryingly true
We’re away as a group of mates and we have had several debates about reform and it’s scary how few know their MO

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

The most recently available data from the OBR indicates that we are lagging significantly behind the G7. Which includes both France and Germany, the two most comparable economies in the eu.

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2024 - Office for Budget Responsibility

The latest update of our forecasts was published on 6 March 2024 in the March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the Executive summary for the key messages of our forecast or the full report on our website. Chapter 2 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five-year horizon. We cover...

obr.uk

Apologies for my ignorance but what’s the source of the graph you shared?

The OBR do not do comparisons of UK economy versus other countries. Nor actually do they do an analysis of UK economic performance. They provide analysis to ministers as to the economic impact of their own policies.

Q1 2025 data for GDP growth:
UK = 0.7%
Germany = 0.3%
France = 0.6%

The "G7" average is inflated by the US performance but the UK is performing better than both peer EU countries

 

[LutonSpurs]

Well I think its zero for Israel. Which is the important context of the perceived "inconsistency" of us tolerating them having nukes but not tolerating Iran having them.

Again you have nothing to support your assertions

 

[Crab.C.Nesbitt]

The OBR do not do comparisons of UK economy versus other countries. Nor actually do they do an analysis of UK economic performance. They provide analysis to ministers as to the economic impact of their own policies.

Q1 2025 data for GDP growth:
UK = 0.7%
Germany = 0.3%
France = 0.6%

The "G7" average is inflated by the US performance but the UK is performing better than both peer EU countries

The trouble with the q1 percentage data you’ve quoted is that the uk economy had shrunk further than the french and German economies due to brexit.

Thus the growth is relative not absolute.

 

[Crab.C.Nesbitt]

People get desperate enough and angry enought. They'll vote for anything promising change. Even a hitler.

This does worry me greatly. There’s a lot to dislike about this Labour government but a far right reform government will be much worse.

 

[markysimmo]

This does worry me greatly. There’s a lot to dislike about this Labour government but a far right reform government will be much worse.

Let's face it Labour, Reform, Tories, not one of them is worth a cup of cold tinkle

 

[Crab.C.Nesbitt]

Let's face it Labour, Reform, Tories, not one of them is worth a cup of cold tinkle

Sadly too true!

 

[Grays_1890]

Let's face it Labour, Reform, Tories, not one of them is worth a cup of cold tinkle

True

You have to wonder whats next, even if people want change no sane person can say that Reform have the policies or the knowhow to lead.

SO maybe a "reformed" party........

 

[Crab.C.Nesbitt]

While he’s not perfect I think Andy burnham would probably be the best shouldn’t for Labour leader

 

[Grays_1890]

Why is Lucy Connolly being used as a poster girl for the missunderstood? People can think what they like about the court system, government and police in this country, but she is still a racist, I just don't understand the clamour to use here as a weapon in the fight???

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

The trouble with the q1 percentage data you’ve quoted is that the uk economy had shrunk further than the french and German economies due to brexit.

Thus the growth is relative not absolute.

UK GDP in 2016 was $2.689 trillion (year of referendum)
UK GDP in 2020 was $2.697 trillion (year of transition period)
UK GDP in 2021 was $3.143 trillion (first year after transition period)
UK GDP in 2022 was $3.114 trillion
UK GDP in 2023 was $3.381 trillion
UK GDP in 2024 was $3.264 trillion

So where's this significant shrinkage that we had but France and Germany never had?

I've literally shown you a graph where all major European economies are pretty much in lockstep...

And you're the one that referenced "the most recently available data" showing we are lagging behind, when it doesnt show anything of the sort.

 

[Crab.C.Nesbitt]

 

[monkeybarry]

Jesus are they still folks crying over Brexit.

Crying? No. Accurately and pragmatically talking about real life and understanding context.
You'll appreciate the irony in that sentence.