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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

We are at the stage now where it has to be everyone against the fascists. This has headed them off, hopefully for quite some time.
I think what's happened in France gives everyone hope. No matter what the polls suggest or the media highlight, the real uprising is of decent people, when called upon they are there in numbers, whether they're quiet most of the time or just can't be arsed to drag themselves along to the voting booth, when human danger enters politics, they step forward.

Not so sure about the US though?
 
I think what's happened in France gives everyone hope. No matter what the polls suggest or the media highlight, the real uprising is of decent people, when called upon they are there in numbers, whether they're quiet most of the time or just can't be arsed to drag themselves along to the voting booth, when human danger enters politics, they step forward.

Not so sure about the US though?
Hm, not convinced about that tbh.
Take out the loony hard right who would vote for the hard right regardless, let's disregard them for now.
Why are the average voter either moving towards these parties or not voting?
Because they are not being listened to.
Real or imagined immigration is an issue.
The cost of living is an issue. It's all very well supporting Ukraine and moving towards a greener future, but when it impacts people's standard of living it becomes a very real issue.
What has happened in France is a small and may well turn out to be a pyrrhic victory.
 
There are no european students at all now they pay rest of world prices (30k a year). If you could get them to match the new UK ones (probably around 12k) all the greek and french etc students will hopefully come back

Universities make a loss on students paying those prices, the rest of the world fees subsidise everyone else.
 
I think what's happened in France gives everyone hope. No matter what the polls suggest or the media highlight, the real uprising is of decent people, when called upon they are there in numbers, whether they're quiet most of the time or just can't be arsed to drag themselves along to the voting booth, when human danger enters politics, they step forward.

Not so sure about the US though?

It only happened because hundreds of candidates withdrew so millions of people didn't actually get to make their first choice vote. Don't get me wrong I don't want them in power but suppression tactics are just delaying tactics unless governments actually start acting on voters concerns or give clear explanations of why they aren't. Even if it's a minority say 35-40% of people pushing for something it still needs to be addressed if you want to govern for all. Immigration will continue to be an issue, probably even more so once you start getting climate based migration.
 
Universities make a loss on students paying those prices, the rest of the world fees subsidise everyone else.
They lose at 9k. But not once the new government introduce backdated inflation and allow them to rise to 12k, where they will be able to meet costs.

The point is more at rest of world prices, no european students come. Whereas if they went back to uk levels, there would be student number recovery, and hopefully income that more than washes its face
 
It only happened because hundreds of candidates withdrew so millions of people didn't actually get to make their first choice vote. Don't get me wrong I don't want them in power but suppression tactics are just delaying tactics unless governments actually start acting on voters concerns or give clear explanations of why they aren't. Even if it's a minority say 35-40% of people pushing for something it still needs to be addressed if you want to govern for all. Immigration will continue to be an issue, probably even more so once you start getting climate based migration.

What happens when the euphoria of keeping the hard right out wears off and the voters realise that nothing has actually changed?
Voters are disaffected, these distraction tactics won't last forever.
 
It only happened because hundreds of candidates withdrew so millions of people didn't actually get to make their first choice vote. Don't get me wrong I don't want them in power but suppression tactics are just delaying tactics unless governments actually start acting on voters concerns or give clear explanations of why they aren't. Even if it's a minority say 35-40% of people pushing for something it still needs to be addressed if you want to govern for all. Immigration will continue to be an issue, probably even more so once you start getting climate based migration.
This is the nature of the left though. It is fractured and covers a broad spectrum of ideas and beliefs. The far right all goose-step together and we don't need to pander to their bigotry. There is no need to find common ground with them as they will just bank your concession and start squealing again.
 
Hm, not convinced about that tbh.
Take out the loony hard right who would vote for the hard right regardless, let's disregard them for now.
Why are the average voter either moving towards these parties or not voting?
Because they are not being listened to.
Real or imagined immigration is an issue.
The cost of living is an issue. It's all very well supporting Ukraine and moving towards a greener future, but when it impacts people's standard of living it becomes a very real issue.
What has happened in France is a small and may well turn out to be a pyrrhic victory.
You're conflating a lot of things in that post.
The bottom line is .....
Immigration has been sold as the bogey man for all the disaffected's ills. That's the core message of the parties they're gravitating towards.

How are they to blame for any of the issues you state?

The fall in standard of living has gradually eating its way up the classes from bottom up due to wealth inequality and the death spiral of the last 10 years of conservative rule.

I'd like everyone on here to declare (anecdotally) how immigration/asylum seekers/refugees have directly affected them (negative or positive).

On the other points...

It's all very well supporting Ukraine?...as opposed to letting Putin have his way?

Moving towards a greener future?...impacts people's standard of living? Well, if we don't, it sure will.

As a side note, we as a country have faced difficult issues on a par or worse than any other EU country but we vote in what very much looks like a centrist government?
 
You're conflating a lot of things in that post.
The bottom line is .....
Immigration has been sold as the bogey man for all the disaffected's ills. That's the core message of the parties they're gravitating towards.

How are they to blame for any of the issues you state?

The fall in standard of living has gradually eating its way up the classes from bottom up due to wealth inequality and the death spiral of the last 10 years of conservative rule.

I'd like everyone on here to declare (anecdotally) how immigration/asylum seekers/refugees have directly affected them (negative or positive).

On the other points...

It's all very well supporting Ukraine?...as opposed to letting Putin have his way?

Moving towards a greener future?...impacts people's standard of living? Well, if we don't, it sure will.

As a side note, we as a country have faced difficult issues on a par or worse than any other EU country but we vote in what very much looks like a centrist government?

These issues, as I've already said real or not, are turning people away from the main centralist parties.
The perception of a considerable amount of voters is that their concerns are not being listened to.
Several countries in Europe now have governments unable to govern because of weak coalitions, is that going to alleviate the issues? Will it persuade voters to return to the centre? Or does it just open the door wider for right in the next election.
With no mandate in France for any party to govern it's unlikely that much will get done, le pen can, and almost certainly will, stand back and say "see, we could have fixed it, but this cabal who didn't listen to your voice thwarted us. Don't fall for it again."
More people are turning towards the right, not away from it, that's not going to stop by ignoring them.

Let's look at the UK.
Blair wins a landslide as voters leave a tory party that is riven with division, mired in scandal and failing govern.
10 years later swop new Labour with the tories.
A hung parliament results because well there is not much difference between labour and tory. Surge in lib Dems vote. Surge is probably a push, but certainly an uplift.
Guess what, turns out lib Dems aren't actually any different.
The rise of the SNP. You can skip to the conclusions if you want here, it's a bit TLDR and maybe uncomfortable for some.
So in Scotland, a Labour stronghold for generations, voters who suddenly can't vote for Labour because of the cesspit that Labour has become and would rather sacrifice their first born on an alter to Satan than vote tory turn to the only protest vote in town. The SNP.
This worked reasonably well under salmond, he knew his audience and was prepared to win them over gradually.
But then the carrot of a ref was dangled and he fell for it.
In an atmosphere reminiscent of '78 and Allys Tartan Army the ref was lost but a new general enters the fray.
With lots of good words, but sleakit deeds, the general conquers the world.
The Scots want independence everyone shouts, well everyone except the Scots. All hail Nicola is the cry.
As the headlines proclaim all the good the Snp are going to do no one actually stops and asks, well when are you going to do them?
The "sovereign will of the Scottish people" becomes the "Sovereign will of the Scottish Parliament" which then turns into "your concerns are not valid". How very orwellian.
All as it crashes and burns around them.
The tory vote tanked in the UK, but surprisingly not Scotland , the snp results were a lot worse.


The UK has run out of places to lay your protest vote, until reform came along.
It's easy to say that everyone who voted reform is a swivel eyed right wing racist loon, just as it was easy to say every vote for the Snp was a vote for indy.
The problems are not going away, if they are not addressed then we are all back in the same situation come the next round of elections.

Sorry for the length of the post, and bleating on about the Snp, although they are the perfect example, and of course it is just all my opinion 😁.

Edited for some bad grammar 😊.
 
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These issues, as I've already said real or not, are turning people away from the main centralist parties.
Not sure that’s true of the UK.

General Election results 2024:

Labour - 412
Conservative - 121
Lib Dems - 72
Others - 46

UKIP vote 2015 General Election - 12.6% vote share
Reform vote 2024 General Election - 14.3% of vote share (this against a Tory party in disarray)

A lot of hype in the UK media about a switch away from the main parties, without a lot of evidence to back it up.
 
Not sure that’s true of the UK.

General Election results 2024:

Labour - 412
Conservative - 121
Lib Dems - 72
Others - 46

UKIP vote 2015 General Election - 12.6% vote share
Reform vote 2024 General Election - 14.3% of vote share (this against a Tory party in disarray)

A lot of hype in the UK media about a switch away from the main parties, without a lot of evidence to back it up.

That quote is from a section discussing EU politics.
The UK is currently behind the curve.
Should labour prove to be no more effective than the tories where does the discontented vote go?
It’s very unlikely that either the tories or the snp will have their houses in order.
The lib Dems?
Purely my opinion, but I think we asking for trouble by not addressing why voters are discontented.

Starmer is saying a lot of the right things, it will take time, there is a lot of issues, it's not going to be easy, there will have to be some pain.
Some of that I'm sure is to head off expectations, he must know what lies ahead. It's going to take at least two parliaments to get back on anything like an even keel.
Luckily every other party is weak, let's hope it buys him time to sort it out, but he will have to hit the ground running.
 
You're conflating a lot of things in that post.
The bottom line is .....
Immigration has been sold as the bogey man for all the disaffected's ills. That's the core message of the parties they're gravitating towards.

How are they to blame for any of the issues you state?

The fall in standard of living has gradually eating its way up the classes from bottom up due to wealth inequality and the death spiral of the last 10 years of conservative rule.

I'd like everyone on here to declare (anecdotally) how immigration/asylum seekers/refugees have directly affected them (negative or positive).

On the other points...

It's all very well supporting Ukraine?...as opposed to letting Putin have his way?

Moving towards a greener future?...impacts people's standard of living? Well, if we don't, it sure will.

As a side note, we as a country have faced difficult issues on a par or worse than any other EU country but we vote in what very much looks like a centrist government?

Immigrants have always been s spacegoats since Henry VIII times and the green issue needs people and governments to accept long term planning, investment and a reduction in life choices. Nobody in power is interested in long term issues, just what they can do before moving on to an other job.

There are massive problems for this government to repair and I think they'll need at least 3 terms to improve things and that's without any unforeseeable issues. They won't get it, be lucky to get an other as the majority of people expect everything now and social media will spread its poison and be picked up by main stream.

I had such hope's in the 60's for Britain and the world and it looks not much has changed, the rich get richer, child poverty is as bad, people can't afford to buy a house and no adequate social housing, unemployment worse (as stats are manipulated), women are still second class citizens and racism is flourishing, no sign of world peace. Not to worry most people are slaves to their mobile phone and you can get anything delivered to your home.
 
With the recent downpours in Sussex, Southern Water have been pumping untreated sewage into the Sea again.

Obviously absolutely no blame on Labour. But what is funny is I just got my haircut this morning and my Kurdish barber who I often talk to about this topic said it crazy they just put brick in the sea.

Gets so bad in Worthing after a dry spell then heavy rain that you can smell it.

Hope Labour do something on this.
 
Not sure that’s true of the UK.

General Election results 2024:

Labour - 412
Conservative - 121
Lib Dems - 72
Others - 46

UKIP vote 2015 General Election - 12.6% vote share
Reform vote 2024 General Election - 14.3% of vote share (this against a Tory party in disarray)

A lot of hype in the UK media about a switch away from the main parties, without a lot of evidence to back it up.


Other thing to consider with vote share was the low voter turnout.

Similar to 2001 when it was so obviously a Labour victory that only 59% of voters bothered. Similar here (down from 66% in 2015) with a Labour win flagged for months if not a year.

3.8 million voted in 2015 for UKIP 4.1 voted in 2024 so an increase (slightly more votes from less voters) but nothing monumental in comparison to when they last stood.

Be interesting also to know if there were non-existent candidates or just paper candidates in most seats to draw in votes to increase there share.
 
IWith the recent downpours in Sussex, Southern Water have been pumping untreated sewage into the Sea again.

Obviously absolutely no blame on Labour. But what is funny is I just got my haircut this morning and my Kurdish barber who I often talk to about this topic said it crazy they just put brick in the sea.

Gets so bad in Worthing after a dry spell then heavy rain that you can smell it.

Hope Labour do something on this.
Im surprised they waited for it to start raining.
 
Other thing to consider with vote share was the low voter turnout.

Similar to 2001 when it was so obviously a Labour victory that only 59% of voters bothered. Similar here (down from 66% in 2015) with a Labour win flagged for months if not a year.

3.8 million voted in 2015 for UKIP 4.1 voted in 2024 so an increase (slightly more votes from less voters) but nothing monumental in comparison to when they last stood.

Be interesting also to know if there were non-existent candidates or just paper candidates in most seats to draw in votes to increase there share.

I believe some reason for low turnout was the proof of ID.
 
That was my
What happens when the euphoria of keeping the hard right out wears off and the voters realise that nothing has actually changed?
Voters are disaffected, these distraction tactics won't last forever.

That was my point, until their concerns are addressed they'll continue to vote for the far right
 
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