Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[Gutter Boy]

It'll be interesting.
I suspect they'll have a couple of years of batbrick right, during which they'll pull back some of the reform voters.
Then they'll get properly organised and get a Tory Starmer. The next election will move the crazies out; reform will collapse and the a centre right Tory party will resume - probably with appx 150-1
80 MPs, and back at being centre right.

This country has only ever elected from the centre ground. I don't see it changing.

Yes - Duncan Smith then Michael Howards phases

 

[Robspur12]

Jenrick has always been pretty moderate mediocre

Fixed for you

 

[Baleforce]

I doubt Jenrick will be the leader at the next election anyway, only needs 19 MPS to knife him and call a leadership contest.

The membership “always” vote the furthest right option.

Badenoch is the next leader, she’ll get 70% + of the vote I expect.

 

[Gutter Boy]

The membership “always” vote the furthest right option.

Badenoch is the next leader, she’ll get 70% + of the vote I expect.

Do you think the Maidenhead blue rinse will go for someone black though? Even though she is massively islamophobic herself. When Generic is probably their ideal grandson-in-law

 

[Gutter Boy]

Not going to happen. Core tory vote in the south very far from where Lib Dems are politically. I think there was a lot of movement around parties in 2017 and 2019 due to Brexit, but all but the most ardent single-issue campaigners think Brexit is done now as an issue and have no appetite to discuss it. If you look at the GE in 2024 what happened?
- The Tories lost around 6 million votes from 2019. So where did they end up?
- They largely didn't end up at Labour. Labour also lost votes from 2019, they were down around half a million.
- They largely didn't go to the Lib Dems either. The Lib Dems also lost votes from 2019, they were down only around 200K.
- Two major parties increased their number of votes:
- The Greens increased their vote by over 1.1 million.
- Reform got just over 4 million votes, which you can see as a new figure for a new party, or an increase of 3.5 million votes over what the Brexit party got in 2019.
- now the FPTP system makes it hard to draw definitive conclusions from all of this, but what it says to me is that:
- The Tories were very unpopular and appear to have lost a significant chunk of votes to Reform and the rest stayed at home and didn't vote. Maybe some went Green.
- But there was no enthusiasm for Labour or the Lib Dems who also lost voters. I suspect the Greens may have been a beneficiary.
- If the tories stop eating each other and get behind a leader that has a strong anti immigration hand but with sensible ideas elsewhere - 2029 is on for them. Labour are there for the taking. It's the most built-on-sand landslide election victory there has probably ever been.

The Tories lost permanently blue home counties seats like Horsham to the Lib Dems for the first time ever. There are a lot of those (now) marginals across the SE, as well as the traditional SW.

The split between the economic neo-libs (who will go to Lib Dems, as they are quite right wing too on that) and the social conservatives (the Reform adjacent swivel eyes) is possibly fairly even?

 

[Kompakted]

The Tories lost permanently blue home counties seats like Horsham to the Lib Dems for the first time ever. There are a lot of those (now) marginals across the SE, as well as the traditional SW.

The split between the economic neo-libs (who will go to Lib Dems, as they are quite right wing too on that) and the social conservatives (the Reform adjacent swivel eyes) is possibly fairly even?

So Horsham is a pretty good example of what I'm saying.

The Lib Dem gain in Horsham (from 14,773 - 2019 to 21,632 - 2024) is circa 7,000 votes.

The Tory loss in the same seat (from 35,900 - 2019 to 19,115 - 2024) is circa 15,000 votes.

Labour lost over 3,000 votes from 2019.

Reform got 6,116 where Brexit didn't stand in 2019.

Circa 7,500 voters stayed at home from 2019.

So while there is a bit of a leak to Lib Dem, the primary cause of the tory loss is voters from 2019 staying at home or going Reform.

They only need circa 2,000 - 3,000 voters to come back to win the seat back (less than half of those that stayed at home for example) and if a good chunk of Tory abstainers come back disillusioned by 5 years of labour smashing pensioners, private schools and other policies that will wreak havoc in south east England then the seat will revert back to a safe Tory seat (I.e. if the tories get all their vote out no other party can touch them in seats like this even with significant labour tactical voting for Lib dem

 

[Gutter Boy]

So Horsham is a pretty good example of what I'm saying.

The Lib Dem gain in Horsham (from 14,773 - 2019 to 21,632 - 2024) is circa 7,000 votes.

The Tory loss in the same seat (from 35,900 - 2019 to 19,115 - 2024) is circa 15,000 votes.

Labour lost over 3,000 votes from 2019.

Reform got 6,116 where Brexit didn't stand in 2019.

Circa 7,500 voters stayed at home from 2019.

So while there is a bit of a leak to Lib Dem, the primary cause of the tory loss is voters from 2019 staying at home or going Reform.

They only need circa 2,000 - 3,000 voters to come back to win the seat back (less than half of those that stayed at home for example) and if a good chunk of Tory abstainers come back disillusioned by 5 years of labour smashing pensioners, private schools and other policies that will wreak havoc in south east England then the seat will revert back to a safe Tory seat (I.e. if the tories get all their vote out no other party can touch them in seats like this even with significant labour tactical voting for Lib dem

2019 was the Brexit election though. A lot of Tory votes in that election were lent from others because they offered a clear and positive way out of that. I don't think they are lost Tory votes that they can win back - that's was a one-off coalition. Brexit won't even be on the radar at all by 2029, it will be much more things like the protection of workers' rights against automisation etc.

 

[Kompakted]

2019 was the Brexit election though. A lot of Tory votes in that election were lent from others because they offered a clear and positive way out of that. I don't think they are lost Tory votes that they can win back - that's was a one-off coalition. Brexit won't even be on the radar at all by 2029, it will be much more things like the protection of workers' rights against automisation etc.

Tories have had between 30,000 - 40,000 votes in Horsham in every election post 2005 and in every post-war election prior to 1997.

Tory vote also stayed at home during Blair years along with bit of tactical voting (which wasn't enough for the Lib Dems to take the seat off them).

A successful labour government under Starmer coupled with poor Tory opposition could keep these seats out of Tory hands in a similar fashion but the fed up ness of the Tories will fade and the difference is Blair never implemented policies that targeted wealthy south east England. People wanted to send the Tories a message primarily in 2024 but in these kind of areas there's already a growing anger with Starmer's labour and the impact of their policies.

This isn't Blair (who was very much seen neutrally by Tories and their press even if they didn't actively back him).

 

[Gutter Boy]

Tories have had between 30,000 - 40,000 votes in Horsham in every election post 2005 and in every post-war election prior to 1997.

Tory vote also stayed at home during Blair years along with bit of tactical voting (which wasn't enough for the Lib Dems to take the seat off them).

A successful labour government under Starmer coupled with poor Tory opposition could keep these seats out of Tory hands in a similar fashion but the fed up ness of the Tories will fade and the difference is Blair never implemented policies that targeted wealthy south east England. People wanted to send the Tories a message primarily in 2024 but in these kind of areas there's already a growing anger with Starmer's labour and the impact of their policies.

This isn't Blair (who was very much seen neutrally by Tories and their press even if they didn't actively back him).

It's the housebuilding programme that will really tinkle off those areas. The Surrey Hills and South Downs 'green to grey' scheme.

Or we could tax private landlords out of existence and avert that.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

It's the housebuilding programme that will really tinkle off those areas. The Surrey Hills and South Downs 'green to grey' scheme.

Or we could tax private landlords out of existence and avert that.

The housebuilding around Horsham the last 10-15 years has been huge...near to closing the green gap between them and Crawley. So it's nothing new to them.

Housing needs a total rethink beyond private housebuilders and number of units per annum. (I'm surprised Labour haven't given this more thought as a policy)

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Tories have had between 30,000 - 40,000 votes in Horsham in every election post 2005 and in every post-war election prior to 1997.

Tory vote also stayed at home during Blair years along with bit of tactical voting (which wasn't enough for the Lib Dems to take the seat off them).

A successful labour government under Starmer coupled with poor Tory opposition could keep these seats out of Tory hands in a similar fashion but the fed up ness of the Tories will fade and the difference is Blair never implemented policies that targeted wealthy south east England. People wanted to send the Tories a message primarily in 2024 but in these kind of areas there's already a growing anger with Starmer's labour and the impact of their policies.

This isn't Blair (who was very much seen neutrally by Tories and their press even if they didn't actively back him).

To regain some of their historical easy seats is a bare minimum to shift the needle back in their favour.

They could do that, and still lose an election.

It all rests on whether the public have a stomach for some long term thinking, which is a big ask given modern life attitudes.

 

[Kompakted]

To regain some of their historical easy seats is a bare minimum to shift the needle back in their favour.

They could do that, and still lose an election.

It all rests on whether the public have a stomach for some long term thinking, which is a big ask given modern life attitudes.

The discussion was around whether Tories have lost SE England to the Lib Dems semi-permanently after merging with Reform. I will tell you now if Farage manages a takeover of the Tory party the Tories will easily win back not only all the traditional seats they lost, but many of the "red wall" seats they won in 2019 and I could also see Labour struggling to hold on in seats like Sunderland. I don't think it will actually happen so for me it's a moot point but if you added the Reform and tory votes together you'd instantly have whoever was sitting astride that marching into no 10

 

[Grays_1890]

The discussion was around whether Tories have lost SE England to the Lib Dems semi-permanently after merging with Reform. I will tell you now if Farage manages a takeover of the Tory party the Tories will easily win back not only all the traditional seats they lost, but many of the "red wall" seats they won in 2019 and I could also see Labour struggling to hold on in seats like Sunderland. I don't think it will actually happen so for me it's a moot point but if you added the Reform and tory votes together you'd instantly have whoever was sitting astride that marching into no 10

If Farage gets in and people vote for him then the UK is thicker than I gave them credit for. Blokes a disgrace of a man

 

[Gutter Boy]

The discussion was around whether Tories have lost SE England to the Lib Dems semi-permanently after merging with Reform. I will tell you now if Farage manages a takeover of the Tory party the Tories will easily win back not only all the traditional seats they lost, but many of the "red wall" seats they won in 2019 and I could also see Labour struggling to hold on in seats like Sunderland. I don't think it will actually happen so for me it's a moot point but if you added the Reform and tory votes together you'd instantly have whoever was sitting astride that marching into no 10

Not now the Brexit war is won. Working class socialists won't go to Farage in any numbers for his substitute projects of basically islamophobia and transphobia

 

[Kompakted]

If Farage gets in and people vote for him then the UK is thicker than I gave them credit for. Blokes a disgrace of a man

He's very popular. But marmite in that you either like him or hate him. There's little in-between. The reason why I don't think there will be a merger between Reform and Tories is that while tory voters and members quire like farage, the parliamentary tory party are quite allergic to him and the feeling appears to be mutual on farage's side. Also, I don't think farage actually wants to be PM. He's happy where he is: creating carnage on the sidelines while raking it in from his media stuff, campaigning in America not having to formulate coherent policy for issues he'd probably find very dull

 

[Grays_1890]

He's very popular. But marmite in that you either like him or hate him. There's little in-between. The reason why I don't think there will be a merger between Reform and Tories is that while tory voters and members quire like farage, the parliamentary tory party are quite allergic to him and the feeling appears to be mutual on farage's side. Also, I don't think farage actually wants to be PM. He's happy where he is: creating carnage on the sidelines while raking it in from his media stuff, campaigning in America not having to formulate coherent policy for issues he'd probably find very dull

He isn't marmite, he is a cnut and those that like him like him because his small minded and bigoted politics speaks to their same bigotry.

He lied about the attacks in Southport and the north to try and rally hate against minorities and he got caught this week lying about being given advise and that was the reason he could not serve his constituency, blokes lower than a snakes belly

 

[Gutter Boy]

He's very popular. But marmite in that you either like him or hate him. There's little in-between. The reason why I don't think there will be a merger between Reform and Tories is that while tory voters and members quire like farage, the parliamentary tory party are quite allergic to him and the feeling appears to be mutual on farage's side. Also, I don't think farage actually wants to be PM. He's happy where he is: creating carnage on the sidelines while raking it in from his media stuff, campaigning in America not having to formulate coherent policy for issues he'd probably find very dull

There isn't much of a parliamentary tory party left to have much identity. I'd also imagine a good 10-20 MPs (Tugendhat/Cleverley wing) will defect to Lib Dems a couple of weeks into the next leader.

 

[Kompakted]

The housebuilding around Horsham the last 10-15 years has been huge...near to closing the green gap between them and Crawley. So it's nothing new to them.

Housing needs a total rethink beyond private housebuilders and number of units per annum. (I'm surprised Labour haven't given this more thought as a policy)

Housing does need a total rethink. Funny how nobody is really grasping the true root cause of the current regular dumping of sewerage into rivers and seas.

Prevailing view is that this is due to privatisation and greedy water companies. In reality housebuilding and population growth far outstripping the ability to upgrade the sewer system to cope, which when coupled with increases in rainfall due to climate change mean that sewers are pretty much at capacity and are constantly having to discharge via emergency protocol to prevent it backing up into people's houses, the streets and other properties.

Government(s) happy for private water companies to take the brunt of the anger when similar to the railways the kind of strategic infrastructure project required to fix the fundamental structural issues behind the problem was always a central government funded and executed project. They don't want to fund it as it will be the biggest civil infrastructure project undertaken in this country and cost eye watering amounts. However the idea that you could just keep authorising tonnes of new houses be connected to the water system without drastic consequences arising years later would be hilarious if not so serious.

 

[Kompakted]

He isn't marmite, he is a cnut and those that like him like him because his small minded and bigoted politics speaks to their same bigotry.

He lied about the attacks in Southport and the north to try and rally hate against minorities and he got caught this week lying about being given advise and that was the reason he could not serve his constituency, blokes lower than a snakes belly

Illustrating the point rather well there

 

[Kompakted]

There isn't much of a parliamentary tory party left to have much identity. I'd also imagine a good 10-20 MPs (Tugendhat/Cleverley wing) will defect to Lib Dems a couple of weeks into the next leader.

There's quite a sizeable parliamentary tory party to be fair, including 273 members of the House of Lords along with the commons and the raft of candidates whether now seamless or not that I'd also include in the "parliamentary party" which is the part of the party that actually has to come up with policy and fight elections.