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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)
- Thread starter SpurMeUp
- Start date
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
The only other country in the world (with us) that still has clerics in its legislature, so maybe we have more in common than we think?
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Ha ha - the Tories going down the 3 terms or more in opposition route by pivoting to the real loony fringe
I think Jenrick is the one for the Tories. Don't actually think he is looney fringe at all, I think he's doing what Starmer did in the leadership race for Labour - pretend to be a loon to get the membership vote with the intention of ditching it all if he wins.
Jenrick has always been pretty moderate and actually faily silent- a steady eddy minister that you don't hear much from and then suddenly with Sunak looking like he's in trouble he comes out hard on immigration from nowhere and resigned his brief and suddenly his name is everywhere in political circles. I'm not buying it personally I think he just senses the opportunity and he knows the way to unite the tory vote and win back both voters that left for reform and lib dem is to be very hard-line on immigration and moderate on everything else.
That's what I see from him anyway. Badenoch has always been who she has been whereas Jenrick has suddenly morphed into who he is - where was he for example when Bravermam was spouting off to everyone that would listen. - nowhere. Which says it all.
SpiderSpurs
Darren Caskey
None of those Torys currently in the 'spotlight' will be anywhere near the leadership when we get to the next election. The leader will be somebody who is currently little known.
SpurMeUp
Les Howe
Possibly because you are looney fridge!
Starmer was known for being dull, predictable. Far from your representation.
Possibly right here. I don’t know much about Jenrick, maybe he’s playing a popularist card. Though I’d note he also only just got ahead of Cleverly. Janrick wasn’t looney enough for the Torys with Badenoch out looning them all!
Labour and Lib Dem’s are laughing hard right now, James Cleverly was a solid candidate. Someone people could get behind. Oh dear.
Cleverly was never winning a general election. Not saying Badenoch or Jenrick would either but I really don't think Cleverly was a solid candidate.
Look at Starmer's pledges to win the Labour election. It's Jeremy Corbyn's last manifesto. He ditched it all almost immediately. I'm not talking about personality, I'm talking about rhetoric. What you need to win the hearts and minds of people that are willing to pay to be a member of a political party is often very different to what you have to do to win a general election. The vast majority of people are not interested in politics outside of an election.
SpurMeUp
Les Howe
A centrist. And as we know they tend to fair better and capture more votes. Also a likeable, well presented and intelligent chap.
I don’t think anyone in the Labour Party thought Starmer was anything like Corbyn. The Labour left lamented Starmer and the shift to the centre. Starmer was the antidote, not continuation, of Corbyn.
The only question is: does Stamer need to declare Cleverly being off the ticket in his new Gifts register!
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While I don't doubt that a centrist approach wins elections its become a bit of a myth that centrist means being in the middle policy wise on everything. Most of the public tend to feel strongly about one or two things that are in the public consciousness and it's about taking the right stance on those. People aren't generally "meh" on everything. People are mostly right wing on some issues and left wing on others and don't care about the rest. Those that develop a political identity around a coherent set of principles or values are the kind of people that are most likely to be a member of a political party, take an active interest in politics generally and (something polluters have long grappled with) be willing to answer opinion polls outside of an election period. However those people are very much in the minority.A centrist. And as know they tend to fair better and capture more votes. Also a likeable, well presented and intelligent chap.
I don’t think anyone in the Labour Party thought Starmer was anything like Corbyn. The Labour left lamented Starmer and the shift to the centre. Starmer was the antidote, not continuation, of Corbyn.
The only question is: does Stamer need to declare Cleverly being off the ticket in his new Gifts register!
I think most people would fund Cleverly a little bit "meh". To be fair I think most people think that about Starmer. But people were simply too sick of the tories to care by this point.
SpurMeUp
Les Howe
For sure. Having ideas and innovating are imoortant. Which is why Badenoch may win over Jenrick. A least she has some ideas. The huge irony may well be the institutional racism that Badenoch doesn’t think exists may keep her from the top job. Remember the same old Tory members shunning Sunak for the clearly inferior Liz Truss?
Which is why Cleverly or even Tugenheart were the better candidates.
“coherent set of principles” have you see the state of politics today?
with politicians like Janrick who’ll say anything to feign being right wing.Quite. In an arena of cun1s most people will take meh.
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Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Someone said the other day, the next potential Tory PM will currently be at school
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Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Cleverly and Tugenhat were grown ups. Intellectually light weight Ken Clarkes or Michael Hessletines. But growns ups.
Bad Enoch and Generic are just chavy kids who sit on a wall and throw bottles of tinkle at passing shoppers.
Bad Enoch and Generic are just chavy kids who sit on a wall and throw bottles of tinkle at passing shoppers.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
My favourite quote of the day was the Labour MP asking if they needed to declare the leadership vote as a gift.
Baleforce
Arthur Rowe
I do get the short term, "lol what have they done".
I've engaged in a bit myself.
But, this is another huge jump from what is historically this country's most important political party.
We are in a safe pair of hands with the current Labour Party, but a far right blue team, with even half the funding they have received previously, is a dangerous thing.
We are not that far behind the batbrick craziness of the US, it's not centre right vs centre left anymore, it's centre vs lunatic far right fudgewits.
I've engaged in a bit myself.
But, this is another huge jump from what is historically this country's most important political party.
We are in a safe pair of hands with the current Labour Party, but a far right blue team, with even half the funding they have received previously, is a dangerous thing.
We are not that far behind the batbrick craziness of the US, it's not centre right vs centre left anymore, it's centre vs lunatic far right fudgewits.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
I imagine the core Tory vote in the south will migrate to Lib Dems, and they'll come second in 2029. While the Tory rump will merge with Reform.
Not going to happen. Core tory vote in the south very far from where Lib Dems are politically. I think there was a lot of movement around parties in 2017 and 2019 due to Brexit, but all but the most ardent single-issue campaigners think Brexit is done now as an issue and have no appetite to discuss it. If you look at the GE in 2024 what happened?
- The Tories lost around 6 million votes from 2019. So where did they end up?
- They largely didn't end up at Labour. Labour also lost votes from 2019, they were down around half a million.
- They largely didn't go to the Lib Dems either. The Lib Dems also lost votes from 2019, they were down only around 200K.
- Two major parties increased their number of votes:
- The Greens increased their vote by over 1.1 million.
- Reform got just over 4 million votes, which you can see as a new figure for a new party, or an increase of 3.5 million votes over what the Brexit party got in 2019.
- now the FPTP system makes it hard to draw definitive conclusions from all of this, but what it says to me is that:
- The Tories were very unpopular and appear to have lost a significant chunk of votes to Reform and the rest stayed at home and didn't vote. Maybe some went Green.
- But there was no enthusiasm for Labour or the Lib Dems who also lost voters. I suspect the Greens may have been a beneficiary.
- If the tories stop eating each other and get behind a leader that has a strong anti immigration hand but with sensible ideas elsewhere - 2029 is on for them. Labour are there for the taking. It's the most built-on-sand landslide election victory there has probably ever been.
Danishfurniturelover
the prettiest spice girl
First one I'm OK with.
The others I disagree and think same sex marriage is OK as are the other points.
Got a sister in the civil service, secretly hope she is one of the ones.
Danishfurniturelover
the prettiest spice girl
Think it's probably decided by the editor who is in vogue.
monkeybarry
Jack Jull
It'll be interesting.
I suspect they'll have a couple of years of batbrick right, during which they'll pull back some of the reform voters.
Then they'll get properly organised and get a Tory Starmer. The next election will move the crazies out; reform will collapse and the a centre right Tory party will resume - probably with appx 150-1
80 MPs, and back at being centre right.
This country has only ever elected from the centre ground. I don't see it changing.